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Tunisia – 2015. Signs of Forthcoming Disaster. // Otsenki i Idei. Newsletter of the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS. Vol. 1, № 6, August 2015 Tunisia – 2015. Signs of Forthcoming Disaster. // Otsenki i Idei. Newsletter of the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS. Vol. 1, № 6, August 2015

Vasily Kuznetsov

Tunisia – 2015. Signs of Forthcoming Disaster. // Otsenki i Idei. Newsletter of the Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS. Vol. 1, № 6, August 2015

Institut vostokovedeniya RAN

Moskva, 2015, 12 pages

ISBN: 978-5-89282-650-1

Successful outcome of the formal stage of democratic transition in Tunisia (autumn of 2014) did not guarantee the state further political and social stabilization. Today international and native experts predict a new wave of political and than national crisis, even more dangerous and bloody than the previous one. There are four general reasons for this scenario: fragile balance of political forces, protest movements in socio-economic sphere, terroristic threat, and high popularity of jihadism in some segments of the society. The author analyses these prerequisites, characterizes in detail main political parties and protest movements in Tunisia, defines prospects of political development of the country. Some features of socio-economic situation in the state, relations with Libya, problems of terrorism, and ISIS activity in particular, external ties, etc. are considered too. The author presents his own concepts based inter alia on his own field work in Tunisia.

RUS