The Situation in the Middle East and North Africa and its Development in the Near Future
Editor: Plotnikov Nikolay
Author-compilator: Ushanov Maxim
Translator: Semyon Basinskix
Reviewer: Zakharov Valery
Москва, 2024, 78 p.
The international scientific and practical conference “The Situation in the Middle East and North Africa and its Development in the Near Future” was hosted by the Center for Scientific and Analytical Information of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CSAI IOS RAS). It was attended by experts from 15 countries (Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America), the Security Council of the Russian Federation, the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly and an international NGO, whose staff regularly conducts field research in the Middle East. In addition to researchers of IOS RAS, Russia was also represented by the Higher School of Economics, Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, and St. Petersburg State University.
This collection includes reports of the conference participants on such topics as the analysis of the current situation in the MENA region, the reasons for the escalation in the Middle East, and possible consequences for the region. The conference also focused on the processes occurring in individual MENA countries.
The book is intended for politicians, civil servants, political scientists, historians, experts studying the Middle East and North Africa and the processes the region.
Content
CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS...3
CONFERENCE OPENING
Nikolai Plotnikov, Head of CSAI IOS RAS, Doctor of Political Sciences...5
Yuri Zhukov, representative of the Security Council of the Russian Federation...6
INTRODUCTION
Nikolai Plotnikov, Head of CSAI IOS RAS, Doctor of Political Sciences...8
SESSION 1.
THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND PROSPECTS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT
Role Of Middle East and North Africa as Part of Global South Aspirations (Ahmed Al-Wahishi, Н.Е. Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Yemen to the Russian Federation)...10
The Situation in the Middle East and the Prospects for Its Development: An Iranian Perspective (Mandana Tishehyar, Chair of the Board of Directors of the Iranian Peace Studies Scientific Association)...12
The Impact of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict on the Future of the Middle East (Miloš Strugar, founder of the “Conflux Center” non-governmental organization)...14
The Impact of the Middle East Crisis on the Arab Monarchies of the Gulf (Murad Sadygzade, President of the Middle East Studies' Center, Head of the Center for Education and Cooperation (Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences), visiting lecturer at Higher School of Economics University, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, and Moscow State Institute of International Relations)...17
The Situation in the Middle East and the Prospects for its Development: A Pakistani Perspective (Taimur Khan, research associate of the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad)...21
The Axis of Resistance’s Long War Strategy and Its Potential Implications for the Middle East Security Architecture (Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert)...25
The Impact of the Situation in the Middle East and North Africa on the Union State National Interests (Vitali Romanovski, research associate of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research)...28
The Impact of the Situation in the Middle East on Security in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Aleksandar Kostovic, deputy mayor of municipality of East New Sarajevo)...30
The Impact of Water Resources on the Stability of North African States (Alexey Romanov, leading specialist of CSAI IOS RAS)...32
Transcaucasia as a “Near Periphery” of the Middle East: Current Problems of Military and Economic Security of the South Caucasus States (Stanislav Tkachenko, professor of the SPbU Department of European Studies, Doctor of Economic Sciences)...35
Escalation in the Middle East: Challenges and Threats to CSTO Borders in the South Caucasus and Central Asia (Vyacheslav Kocharian, councilor of the
Expert and Analytical Department of the Secretariat of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Parliamentary Assembly, Secretary of the Information and Analytical Legal Center of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Parliamentary Assembly, PhD in Technical Sciences)...37
DISCUSSION...41
SESSION 2.
THE SITUATION IN INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES OF THE MENA REGION
The Prospects for Resolving the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (Alastair Crooke, founder of the “Conflicts Forum” international consulting agency)...43
The Impact of the Conflict in the Middle East on the Situation in the Asia- Pacific (Vladimir Kolotov, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Head of the Saint Petersburg State University Department of History of the Far East, Director of the Saint Petersburg State University Ho Chi Minh Institute)...46
The Situation in Lebanon and the Prospects for its Development (Firas Al- Shoufi, independent political analyst)...49
The Situation in the Sahara-Sahel Zone: Status and Prospects, an Egyptian Perspective (Salah Halima, Board Member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs)...52
The Situation in the Sahara-Sahel Zone: Status and Prospects, a Moroccan Perspective (Mesa Garcia Beatriz, associate professor of the International University of Rabat)...56
The Situation in Iraqi Kurdistan (Aso Talabani, independent political analyst)...59
The Prospects for Resolving the Syrian Crisis and Rebuilding the Country (Ali Al-Ahmed, independent political analyst)...60
The Situation in Iraq (Nir Rozen, advisor of the “Center for Humanitarian Dialogue” non-governmental organization)...63
The Impact of Terrorist Activity on the Situation in the Sahara-Sahel Zone (Mikhail Ilevich, junior researcher of CSAI IOS RAS)...65
Türkiye’s Middle Eastern Policy (Arif Asalioglu, independent political analyst)...69
The Conflict Between the Security Services and the Ultra-Right in Israel (Valery Zakharov, leading specialist of CSAI IOS RAS, PhD in Philosophy)...71
CONCLUSION
Nikolai Plotnikov, Head of CSAI IOS RAS, Doctor of Political Sciences...74
РУССКАЯ ВЕРСИЯ: The Situation in the Middle East and North Africa and its Development in the Near Future
