Korotayev Andrey

Cycles, Crises, Modern World System Traps : Reserch of Kondratieff, Juglar and Secular Cycles, Global Crises, Malthusian and Post-Malthusian Traps

Москва, 2012, 480 p.

The monograph presents an attempt to examine interrelations of cycles (the most important form of societies development) and inevitable consequences of such development – traps and crises, overcoming of which gives a powerful impulse to social dynamics. The book analyses Malthusian trap as well as various types of Post-Malthusian traps widespread in the modern world. These traps are connected with modernization of the societies and comprise one of its main results – the change of demographic structure of the society. The work includes three parts. They are devoted respectively to large-scale Kondratieff and medium term Juglar economic cycles; Malthusian and Post-Malthusian (modernization) traps as well as possibilities of escape from them; various types of crises.
The last part focuses on prognoses of how and to what extent the world will change in the nearest decades.

РУССКАЯ ВЕРСИЯ: Циклы, кризисы, ловушки современной Мир-Системы : исследование кондратьевских, жюгляровских и вековых циклов, глобальных кризисов, мальтузианских и постмальтузианских ловушек